Insecurity, Economic Uncertainty and Performance of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in North Central, Nigeria

Abstract

 This study investigates the impact of insecurity and economic uncertainty on the performance of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in North-Central Nigeria. Utilising survey data from 574 MSMEs in Benue, Plateau and Nasarawa states, the research employs a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique. The findings reveal that the effects of insecurity are not uniform. Terrorism/insurgency and criminal insecurity exert a significant direct negative impact on MSME performance. Conversely, farmer-herder conflict influences performance indirectly by profoundly exacerbating economic uncertainty, which acts as a critical transmission channel. The study concludes that while direct security threats require robust law enforcement, the unique nature of farmer-herder conflict demands policy interventions focused on economic stabilization and predictability. This research provides a unique empirical analysis of the interconnectedness of these variables in the Nigerian context, offering insights for targeted policy formulation.