IMPACT OF CONSUMER GOODS TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

 This study investigated the impact of various categories of consumer goods trade, namely: food and live animals, beverages and tobacco, animal and vegetable oils or cooking oil and fats, and manufactured goods on Nigeria’s economic growth measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. The study employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and PhillipsPerron (PP) test for unit root analysis, the ARDL bounds testing approach for cointegration and short-run and long-run ARDL models to determine the dynamic relationships. Granger causality tests were conducted to ascertain causality directions, while diagnostic tests ensured model robustness. The findings revealed that food and live animals, animal and vegetable oils or cooking oil and fats, and manufactured goods have a significant positive impact on GDP growth, whereas beverages and tobacco have a relatively weaker effect. The results indicate a robust long-term relationship between GDP and the consumption of these goods, particularly emphasising the critical role of manufactured goods. In conclusion, enhancing agricultural productivity, diversifying and innovating within the beverage and tobacco sectors, developing the oils and fats industry and innovation in manufacturing are crucial for optimising Nigeria’s economic growth. Recommendations included boosting agricultural efficiency, promoting innovation in beverage and tobacco industries, investing in processing and export opportunities for oils and fats and improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector. These measures are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s economic growth trajectory through effective management and strategic investments in consumer goods trade.